Stop Guessing. Here Are the Validated Odds for KAS, BTC & Fartcoin.
The world of crypto investing is drowning in noise. "Inverse head and shoulders," "golden crosses," and "gut feelings" dominate the conversation. We're told to trust the process, but the process feels more like a casino than a science.
Most people aren’t investing. They’re guessing — without realizing they’re guessing.
I started Power Law Investor because we deserve better. In a market defined by volatility, the strongest edge isn’t a magical indicator. It’s a validated understanding of probability.
The Product: A Forward-Looking Probability Engine
PAI told us whether an asset is historically “hot” or “cold.” Useful — but incomplete.
We needed to answer the real question:
"Where are we likely to go?"
The charts below show, for each asset, the probability of price touching different PAI-defined levels over the next 30, 60, and 90 days.
This produces a distribution of probable outcomes, not a prediction.
🎯 Want these updated weekly?
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The Proof: Validated Using Brier Scores
A forecasting system is meaningless without calibration.
The Brier Score grades the accuracy of probability forecasts.
Lower = more accurate.
| Score Range | Quality | Real-World Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| 0.00 – 0.10 | Excellent | Professional weather forecasting |
| 0.10 – 0.15 | Good | Sharp sports betting markets |
| 0.15 – 0.20 | Fair | Competent election modeling |
| 0.25 | Random | Coin-flip level |
This engine has been tested across 53,956 forecasts.
- Bitcoin: 0.05 (professional forecasting quality)
- Kaspa: 0.144 (strong edge)
No black box. No trust me bro. Validated.
The Analysis: The Odds
Kaspa (KAS)
- Current positioning is historically favorable, but:
- 65% chance we touch the 0.10 PAI level (~$0.046)
- 25% chance we sweep the 0.00 PAI level (~$0.037)
Takeaway:
The highest-leverage move is patience.
Let price come to your bids.
Fartcoin (FART)
- Younger asset → higher volatility → lower calibration confidence
- 71% chance of tagging the 0.10 PAI level (~$0.29)
Takeaway:
This is a limit-order only environment.
High discipline → high payoff.
Bitcoin (BTC)
- Model accuracy is strongest here
- Over 90 days:
55% chance of touching 0.60 PAI (~$134k)
19% chance of touching 0.30 PAI (~$92k)
Takeaway:
Bias is structurally up.
Dips = noise. Trend = intact.
The Framework: From Odds to Action
Use probabilistic context to:
- Scale into value zones
- Scale out of overheated zones
- Avoid reactive trading
- Replace FOMO with math
This is decision architecture, not prediction.
Stop Guessing. Operate With an Edge.
These probabilities update weekly as market structure changes.
If you found this useful, you’ll want the tool I use personally:
👉 Get the Weekly Probability Dashboard + Alerts
Free. Precise. No hype.